AGermanstudysuggeststhatpeoplewhoweretoooptimisticabouttheirfutureactuallyfacedgreaterriskofdisabilityordeathwithin10yearsthanthosepessimistswhoexpectedtheirfuturetobeworse.

ThepaperpublishedthisMarchinPsychologyandAgingexaminedhealthandwelfaresurveysfromroughly40000Germansbetweenages18and96.Thesurveyswereconductedeveryyearfrom1993to2003.

Surveyrespondents(受访者)wereaskedtoestimatetheirpresentandfuturelifesatisfactiononascaleof0to10amongotherquestions.

Theresearchersfoundthatyoungadults(age18to39)routinelyoverestimatedtheirfuturelifesatisfactionwhilemiddle-agedadults(age40to64)moreaccuratelypredictedhowtheywouldfeelinthefuture.Adultsof65andolderhoweverwerefarmorelikelytounderestimatetheirfuturelifesatisfaction.Notonlydidtheyfeelmoresatisfiedthantheythoughttheywouldtheolderpessimistsseemedtosufferalowerratio(比率)ofdisabilityanddeathforthestudyperiod.

“Weobservedthatbeingtoooptimisticinpredictingabetterfuturethanactuallyobservedwasassociatedwithagreaterriskofdisabilityandagreaterriskofdeathwithinthefollowingdecade”wroteFriederR.LangaprofessorattheUniversityofErlangen-Nuremberg.

Langandhiscolleaguesbelievedthatpeoplewhowerepessimisticabouttheirfuturemaybemorecarefulabouttheiractionsthanpeoplewhoexpectedarosyfuture.

“Seeingadarkfuturemayencouragepositiveevaluationsoftheactualselfandmaycontributetotakingimprovedprecautions(预防措施)”theauthorswrote.

Surprisinglycomparedwiththoseinpoorhealthorwhohadlowincomesrespondentswhoenjoyedgoodhealthorincomewereassociatedwithexpectingagreaterdecline.Alsotheresearcherssaidthathigherincomewasrelatedtoagreaterriskofdisability.

Theauthorsofthestudynotedthattherewerelimitationstotheirconclusions.Illnessmedicaltreatmentandpersonallosscouldalsohavedrivenhealthoutcomes.

Howevertheresearcherssaidapatternwasclear.“Wefoundthatfromearlytolateadulthoodindividualsadapttheirexpectationsoffuturelifesatisfactionfromoptimistictoaccuratetopessimistic”theauthorsconcluded.